Log in
Sign in to your OUTCORA research area.
Log inPrediction Market Intelligence
Independent Probability Analytics for Short-Duration Crypto Prediction Markets.
OUTCORA provides independent probability analytics for short-duration crypto Up/Down prediction markets. Current coverage includes five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP markets. It compares model estimates with public market-implied probabilities and adds liquidity, timing, data-quality and forward-research context. Binance Spot prices are reference inputs; paper positions follow the venue’s official settlement outcome.
Independent researchNo transactionsNo operator referrals
PUBLIC REFERENCE DATA
Market context, at a glance.
Track BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP reference prices from Binance alongside the OUTCORA research view. Public website data may be delayed.
O —
H —
L —
C —
Source Binance public market data
UTC / local browser time
RESEARCH SCOPE
Which prediction markets does OUTCORA analyze?
OUTCORA analyzes short-duration crypto Up/Down event markets for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP.
- Markets
- Short-duration crypto Up/Down event markets
- Assets
- BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP
- Reference prices
- Binance Spot BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT and XRPUSDT
Current coverage, stated by name. Venue: Polymarket. Markets: five-minute crypto Up/Down. Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP. Reference prices: Binance Spot. Settlement: the venue’s official outcome, determined from Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices. Coverage may change; this statement is updated when it does.
OUTCORA provides independent research only. We do not provide access to any trading venue. Participation in any market referenced by our research is subject to the relevant venue’s own rules and applicable law.
Your account
Everything you need in one place.
Use your OUTCORA account to manage research access, preferences and subscription settings.
Sign up
Sign up to set up your research access.
Sign upRESEARCH ACTIVITY
The work behind the research.
A transparent view of what OUTCORA’s primary forward research has processed. Operational counts and theoretical settled-ledger ratios are shown separately; they are not recommendations, user transactions or realised customer returns.
Continuously updated data
Average simulated openings / day
—
Primary forward research; complete UTC days only. Settlement closures are not openings.
Waiting for completed-day counts…Analysis cycles
—
Market observations evaluated
Research selectivity
—
Only analyses that pass the relevant checks are qualified
Qualified research outputs
—
Research outputs that passed the relevant checks
Officially settled research cases
—
Paper-only cases with an official settlement outcome
Theoretical research hit rate
—
Positive settled cases across the theoretical ledger
Theoretical performance ratio
—
Net settled value change ÷ gross settled turnover (stake + modelled costs)
Checking settlement history…Theoretical ledger ROE
—
Net settled value change ÷ fixed 100-unit starting reference
Paper-only, uncapped ledger; not capital-constrainedHypothetical performance disclosure
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
Assumptions behind the figures above
- Fills
- Every case is recorded at the venue's quoted ask at the observation timestamp. Full execution at that price is assumed and no market impact is modelled.
- Fees
- The venue's taker-fee schedule is applied per share and charged on entry. No exit fee is applied.
- Slippage
- None is deducted from the recorded result. A spread-based allowance is applied only when deciding whether a case qualifies.
- Sizing
- A reference stake against a fixed 100-unit starting value. The ledger is uncapped and not capital-constrained.
- Settlement
- Cases are closed against the venue's official settlement outcome, not against our own price observation.
- Concurrency
- Cases may overlap in time. Recorded results are not reduced by any limit on how much could be committed at once.
A change in any of these assumptions changes the figures above. The full statement is in section 3.8 of our Terms of Use.
Settlement methodology
OUTCORA settles paper positions according to the venue’s official settlement outcome—the outcome token the venue marks as the winner. For the currently covered short-duration crypto Up/Down markets, official settlement is based on Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices: Up is settled as the winner when the final TWAP is equal to or above the opening TWAP; otherwise, Down is settled as the winner. Binance prices are used only for signal generation and reference analytics; they do not set the settlement price or affect the official settlement outcome. In the OUTCORA paper ledger, the winning side is valued at 1.00u and the losing side at 0.00u.
Research
A clearer way to read probability markets.
A probability on its own rarely tells the whole story. OUTCORA places model estimates alongside publicly observed market figures for five-minute crypto Up/Down markets, adding liquidity, timing and data-quality context.
01
Compare probabilities
See the OUTCORA analytical estimate next to the publicly observed market probability, using the same framework each time.
02
Add market context
Spread, depth, time remaining and data completeness help explain what sits behind the headline number.
03
Keep the timestamp
Every research note keeps the observation time visible, so you know when the underlying data was measured.
How it works
Simple process. Consistent output.
The workflow is designed to be repeatable: collect the data, clean it, evaluate it and publish the result with the relevant context.
01
Collect
Bring together public prediction-market and reference-market data.
02
Clean
Align timestamps and comparable fields so the data can be read consistently.
03
Evaluate
Run the analytical model and data-quality checks.
04
Publish
Share a concise research note with the observation time and context attached.
Our boundaries
What we do. And what we don’t.
OUTCORA uses real-time Binance cryptocurrency prices together with real-time event-market prices and market information as inputs to its analyses. These inputs are evaluated continuously to produce probability forecasts in real time. Recorded research cases are closed and evaluated against the venue’s official settlement outcome.
What we do
+Analyze real-time Binance cryptocurrency prices.
+Analyze real-time event-market prices and market information.
+Produce probability forecasts continuously as market conditions change.
+Close and evaluate recorded cases against the venue’s official settlement outcome.
What we don’t
—No individualized investment recommendations or financial advice.
—We do not provide betting tips, instructions for placing bets, or encouragement to bet.
—No acceptance, custody or handling of user funds.
—No placing trades, bets, orders or transactions for users.
—No brokerage, operator intermediation or routing to gambling or investment operators.
—No guaranteed outcomes, profit claims or performance promises.
Telegram research
Research, without the noise.
Follow concise, timestamped OUTCORA research notes and system updates in the public Telegram channel.
Straight answers
The key questions about OUTCORA.
Clear answers in plain language — useful for people, search engines and AI assistants.
What is OUTCORA?
OUTCORA is an independent research service for short-duration crypto Up/Down prediction markets. Current coverage includes five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP markets. It compares model estimates with public market-implied probabilities, adds liquidity and timing context, and publishes timestamped forward research. It provides general information without placing transactions or holding user funds.
How does OUTCORA analyze five-minute crypto prediction markets?
OUTCORA compares independent model probability estimates with publicly observable market-implied probabilities for five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down markets. It adds liquidity, timing and data-quality checks before publishing timestamped research. Binance Spot prices provide reference inputs; paper positions use the venue’s official settlement outcome. No customer transactions are executed.
Are the Research Activity figures backtest results?
No. They are continuously collected forward-research records generated from real-time public reference-market and event-market data since 4 August 2026. Each observation is timestamped and retained in a traceable research ledger. Results remain theoretical paper-research, not executed customer trading or realised customer returns.
Is OUTCORA investment advice?
No. OUTCORA publishes general research and market information. It does not provide individualized investment recommendations.
Does OUTCORA provide betting advice?
No. OUTCORA does not recommend wagers, tell users what to do, or encourage gambling activity.
Does OUTCORA accept money or place transactions?
No. OUTCORA never accepts or holds user funds and does not place trades, bets, orders or other transactions.
Does OUTCORA direct users to operators?
No. OUTCORA does not act as a broker or intermediary and does not send users to gambling operators, investment firms or transaction venues.
What is published on Telegram?
The Telegram channel contains concise, timestamped research notes, probability comparisons, market context and system updates.
How current is OUTCORA market data?
Each research note keeps its observation time visible. Public website quotes may be delayed, and the data status is shown where relevant.
How does OUTCORA turn market data into research?
OUTCORA collects public reference and prediction-market data, aligns the comparable fields, applies analytical and data-quality checks, then publishes a timestamped research note with context.
How are OUTCORA paper positions settled?
OUTCORA settles paper positions according to the venue’s official settlement outcome. For the currently covered short-duration crypto Up/Down markets, official settlement is based on Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices: Up is settled as the winner when the final TWAP is equal to or above the opening TWAP; otherwise, Down is settled as the winner. Binance prices are used only for signal generation and reference analytics; they do not set the settlement price or affect the official settlement outcome. In the paper ledger, the winning side is valued at 1.00u and the losing side at 0.00u.