Current coverage
The current published scope is five-minute crypto Up/Down markets for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. “Short duration” describes the research category; it does not mean that 15-minute or hourly markets are available today.
Research methodology
How OUTCORA analyzes short-duration crypto prediction markets
OUTCORA compares independent model estimates with publicly observable market probabilities and adds liquidity, timing and data-quality context. Current research covers five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down markets.
From market observation to research note
01 · Collect
Collect public event-market prices and information together with Binance Spot reference prices. Record when each input was observed.
02 · Compare
Place the independent model probability beside the publicly observable market-implied probability for the same event and direction.
03 · Check context
Examine spread, visible depth, time remaining and data completeness. A difference between probabilities is an observation, not a return forecast.
04 · Record
Retain the observation time and relevant context. Evaluate recorded paper cases against the venue’s official settlement outcome after resolution.
How to read a probability difference
If an illustrative model estimate is 64.8% and the observed market probability is 61.2%, the displayed difference is 3.6 percentage points. These example values are not a current market observation. Market prices can change, and spread, fees, liquidity and data timing can affect any comparison. The difference does not represent an executable opportunity or expected return.
Forward research and its limits
Forward research records observations as new data arrives. A paper case is theoretical: it is not a customer transaction or a realised customer return. A dated research result needs its observation period, sample size, selection rules and calculation assumptions to be interpretable. Public website reference quotes may be delayed; the observation time of a research note matters.
Reference prices and official settlement
Binance Spot prices are reference inputs for analysis. They do not set the event market’s official settlement price. Recorded paper cases are evaluated using the venue’s official settlement outcome. The relevant venue rules and data quality must be checked for the specific market being analyzed.
Research boundaries
OUTCORA provides general statistical and educational information. It does not give personalized investment or betting advice, accept or hold user funds, place transactions, or route users to operators.