Paper trading in prediction markets: how to read simulated results
A paper trade is a simulated position recorded without placing a real order. OUTCORA uses paper trades to evaluate model-driven research for five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down prediction markets.
What does paper trading mean at OUTCORA?
OUTCORA records a hypothetical entry using observed prediction-market data, keeps the timestamp and supporting research, then evaluates the position after the venue publishes its official settlement outcome. While a position is open, we call it a paper position. The transaction and its completed record are a paper trade.
This is a research record. The public site does not offer a practice brokerage account or a tool for placing virtual orders. OUTCORA does not execute customer trades or hold customer trading funds.
Why paper trades rather than live trades?
OUTCORA is based in Hungary, where access to Polymarket’s trading services is restricted under current local law. We therefore evaluate our research with paper trades. Our research engine processes real-time Binance and Polymarket market data, while entries, fills and ledger results are simulated. No live orders are placed.
The research engine uses real-time market data from Binance and Polymarket. “Paper” refers to the simulated trades and ledger, not the market inputs. Public website quotes may refresh less frequently or be delayed; historical screenshots and illustrative examples are labelled separately.
As checked on 11 October 2026, the Hungarian regulator’s register of blocked websites lists polymarket.com and its subdomains. Research access does not grant access to Polymarket or establish eligibility to trade on any third-party venue.
How is a paper trade settled?
Binance Spot prices support the analysis, but the venue’s official outcome determines settlement. Under the currently covered Polymarket five-minute Up/Down market rules, settlement uses Chainlink asset/USD 60-second time-weighted average prices. Up wins when the final average is equal to or above the opening average; otherwise, Down wins. In the paper ledger, the winning outcome token is valued at 1.00 reference unit and the losing token at 0.00.
Always read the rules for the specific event. A reference-price chart and an official settlement source serve different purposes.
Which assumptions affect the results?
The current simulation assumes that each paper trade is filled in full at the venue’s quoted ask at the observation timestamp. It does not model market impact. The venue’s taker fee is charged on entry; no exit fee is applied.
No slippage is deducted from the recorded result. A spread-based allowance is used only to decide whether a trade qualifies. This distinction matters: passing a spread check does not mean that the recorded result includes the cost of a worse fill.
The ledger uses a fixed 100-unit starting reference. It is uncapped, allows overlapping positions and does not limit the total reference stake by available capital. Changing any of these assumptions changes the interpretation of the record. Read the full assumptions and hypothetical-performance disclosure beside the published research figures.
How should you read the paper trading metrics?
Settled paper trades count simulated positions with an official outcome. Paper trade win rate is the share of those trades with a positive net result after modelled costs. It is a trading-result measure, rather than a measure of probability calibration or overall forecast accuracy.
The paper trading performance ratio divides the net settled value change by gross settled turnover, including reference stakes and modelled costs. The reference-value ratio divides the same net change by the fixed 100-unit starting reference. Because the ledger allows unlimited overlapping positions, this ratio is not a return on a capital-constrained customer portfolio.
The ledger chart tracks changes in theoretical reference units. Drawdown describes a decline from a previous ledger peak. An uncapped ledger can show relative drawdown above 100%, and historical drawdown does not set a limit on future risk.
How does paper trading relate to forward testing?
Paper trading describes whether an order was simulated. Forward testing describes when the forecast was recorded. OUTCORA’s primary forward-testing record began on 4 August 2026 and uses incoming public market data. A record can therefore be forward-tested while all its trades remain simulated.
Keep observations, qualified signals and paper trades separate: they measure different stages of the research process. Check the dates, sample size, selection rules, model version, missing data and simulation assumptions before comparing results. A positive paper trading record does not guarantee future accuracy, available fills or real-world returns.
